山东大学学报 (工学版) ›› 2023, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (2): 23-33.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2022.255
张豪,李子凌,刘通,张大伟,陶建华*
ZHANG Hao, LI Ziling, LIU Tong, ZHANG Dawei, TAO Jianhua*
摘要： 为研究诸如无人机等新兴信息科学的未来发展趋势,更好地把握这些技术发展与应用情况的动态并及时调整发展战略,在专家系统框架下提出一种基于模糊贝叶斯网的技术趋势预测方法,有效预测无人机技术在未来10 a的发展趋势。在构建预测方案的过程中,结合领域专家的知识,设计若干影响技术发展的维度用作预测参数,不仅包括技术型指标,也包括社会型指标,从而融合更加丰富的信息,使预测结果更加专业可信。提出基于模糊贝叶斯网的技术预测模型,分别对两种类型指标的影响程度进行综合计算形成推理机,使预测结果更加直观精细,具备一定的解释性。对预测模型的结果进行详细分析,并结合其他模型进行对比评价,结果与已有的专业预测结果相符合。试验结果表明,对无人机技术未来10 a发展趋势的预测中,基于模糊贝叶斯网的技术预测模型能够获取影响因素之间的关联关系,具有更好的预测效果。
中图分类号:
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