JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE) ›› 2015, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6): 91-98.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2015.084

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Power demand forecasting in Shandong province with system dynamics

YU Songqing1,2, HOU Chenghao2, SUN Yingtao3   

  1. 1. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
    2. The State Power Supply Company of Liaocheng, Liaocheng 252000, Shandong, China;
    3. State Grid Jinan Power Sapply Company, Jinan 250022, Shandong, China
  • Received:2015-03-30 Revised:2015-04-29 Online:2015-12-20 Published:2015-03-30

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Abstract: To enhance the depth and breadth of choice about the influence factors of power demand, a systematic analysis was made to the society power demand based on system dynamics, and the system dynamics model of power demand forecast were established, which reflects the multiple factors. The accuracy of system dynamics model was verified by historical data, and then was used to simulate and predict the power consumption in Shandong Province. Final, the relevant policy was analyzed for saving technology and urbanization process variable, and some policy suggestion was put forward.

Key words: power demand forecast, system dynamics, policy analysis

CLC Number: 

  • TM715
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