JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE) ›› 2017, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 151-158.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2017.129

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Forecasting method of boiler heat load based on Markov chain

LU Changhai   

  1. Cogeneration Center of Shengli Petroleum Administration Bureau, Dongying 257000, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-03-23 Online:2017-06-20 Published:2017-03-23

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Abstract: The multi-parameter forecasting control model was proposed based on Markov chain of the forecasting method of coal-fired boiler heat load. In accordance with outdoor temperature, the average feed-water temperature was predicted. Then the compound probability was forecast with reference to the average daily fuel consumption, air-blower frequency and induced draft fan frequency. Conversely, the range of high probability was taken full advantage of to optimize the above mentioned three parameters.The experiment results showed that when the room temperature met the heating standards, the average daily fuel consumption was reduced by about 8 percent and the average daily feed-water about 7 percent after the forecasting control model was carried out,the accuracy of coal burning and operation control promoted effectively.This method provided a new way of the fine control of boil heat load.

Key words: forecasting, coal-fired boiler, markov chain, heat load, fine control

CLC Number: 

  • TK11
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