Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science) ›› 2025, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (5): 70-77.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2024.203

• Electrical Engineering—Special Issue for Smart Energy • Previous Articles    

Method for predicting photovoltaic generation and ramp rate considering the impact of solar eclipse transit

CHEN Haoran1, QI Xin2, TIAN Zhihao2, LI Tong2, LIU Gang2, LI Changgang1*   

  1. CHEN Haoran1, QI Xin2, TIAN Zhihao2, LI Tong2, LIU Gang2, LI Changgang1*(1. Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control of Ministry of Education(Shandong University), Jinan 250061, Shandong, China;
    2. State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd., Yinchuan 750001, Ningxia, China
  • Published:2025-10-17

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Abstract: Accurately predicting the output and ramp rate of photovoltaic(PV)systems during an eclipse is of significant importance for alleviating peak-shaving pressure and maintaining the balance of power consumption. A method for constructing an intra-day solar radiation intensity model was proposed, which characterized the daily characteristics of solar radiation intensity at a certain location. Subsequently, models for the shading percentage of the sun during total, annular, and partial eclipses were respectively established to update the intra-day solar radiation intensity model. Next, the PV generation model considering the impact of temperature on efficiency was introduced, along with the ramp rate and calculation models for PV units.In the case study section, the annular eclipse event that occurred on June 21, 2020, in China was used as an example to retrospectively analyze the output of a 100 kW PV station, thereby validating the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, the study explored the impact of different percentages of eclipse obscuration on the PV ramp rate, indicating that eclipses with greater obscuration corresponded to higher PV ramp rates. The PV ramp rate under a total solar eclipse was found to even reach more than 4 times the normal situation, and dispatch personnel were required to attach great importance to it.

Key words: solar eclipse, solar radiation intensity, shading percentage, PV generation, PV ramp rate

CLC Number: 

  • TM615
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