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山东大学学报(工学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6): 91-98.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2015.084

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基于系统动力学的山东省电力需求预测

于松青1,2, 侯承昊2, 孙英涛3   

  1. 1. 天津大学管理与经济学部, 天津 300072;
    2. 国网山东聊城供电公司, 山东聊城 252000;
    3. 国网济南供电公司, 山东济南 250022
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-30 修回日期:2015-04-29 出版日期:2015-12-20 发布日期:2015-03-30
  • 作者简介:于松青(1970-),女,山东聊城人,高级工程师,高级经济师,博士研究生,主要研究方向为系统分析与决策.E-mail:ysq2126@163.com

Power demand forecasting in Shandong province with system dynamics

YU Songqing1,2, HOU Chenghao2, SUN Yingtao3   

  1. 1. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
    2. The State Power Supply Company of Liaocheng, Liaocheng 252000, Shandong, China;
    3. State Grid Jinan Power Sapply Company, Jinan 250022, Shandong, China
  • Received:2015-03-30 Revised:2015-04-29 Online:2015-12-20 Published:2015-03-30

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摘要： 为增进影响电力需求因素选择的深度和广度,利用系统动力学知识对社会用电需求进行系统分析,并建立了电力需求预测的系统动力学模型,该模型能够反映多方面因素的综合作用。利用历史数据验证了系统动力学模型的准确性,然后利用模型对全社会用电量进行模拟预测,并对节能技术变量和城镇化建设进程变量进行政策分析,给出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 电力需求预测, 政策分析, 系统动力学

Abstract: To enhance the depth and breadth of choice about the influence factors of power demand, a systematic analysis was made to the society power demand based on system dynamics, and the system dynamics model of power demand forecast were established, which reflects the multiple factors. The accuracy of system dynamics model was verified by historical data, and then was used to simulate and predict the power consumption in Shandong Province. Final, the relevant policy was analyzed for saving technology and urbanization process variable, and some policy suggestion was put forward.

Key words: power demand forecast, system dynamics, policy analysis

中图分类号: 

  • TM715
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