改进灰自助法及其在可靠性评定中的应用

山东大学学报(工学版) ›› 2010, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 144-148.

改进灰自助法及其在可靠性评定中的应用

曹欣孙新利李振

第二炮兵工程学院103教研室, 陕西西安 710025

收稿日期:2009-04-17 出版日期:2010-02-16 发布日期:2009-04-17
作者简介:曹欣(1985-),男,湖南桃江人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为战斗部可靠性与毁伤效益. E-mail:caoxin1008@sina.com

Improved grey Bootstrap method and its application in reliability evaluation

103 Teaching and Researching Room, the Second Artillery Engineering College, Xi’an 710025, China

Received:2009-04-17 Online:2010-02-16 Published:2009-04-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

极小子样情况下的抽样仿真一直是可靠性仿真评估的热点和难点,目前没有较好的解决办法。运用灰自助法的思想,改进灰自助法的抽样方法克服自助法在极小子样下的重复抽样问题,运用GM(1,1)二次数据拟合模型克服Bootstrap方法在极小子样下仿真结果不可信问题。将改进的灰自助法运用到极小子样可靠性评估中,多个算例表明该方法仿真评估精度较高,并具有较高的可信度和较强的适用性。

关键词: 改进灰自助法;极小子样;可信度;可靠性;抽样

Abstract:

Resampling and simulation with a very small sample is always a hotspot and hard problem in reliability simulation and evaluation. At present,there is nogood method suitable to solve this problem. Based on the principle of the grey Bootstrap, the resample method was improved when the Bootstrap repeatly resampled with a very small sample, and GM(1,1) twice data fitting model to solve the problem that theBootstrap’s simulated result is credible with a very small sample. On the improved grey Bootstrap method in very small sample reliability evaluation, the results indicated that the method had high evaluating precision and highcredibility and strong applicability.

Key words: improved grey Bootstrap; very small sample; credibility; reliability; resample

曹欣孙新利李振. 改进灰自助法及其在可靠性评定中的应用[J]. 山东大学学报(工学版), 2010, 40(1): 144-148.

CAO Xin, SUN Xin-Li, LI Zhen. Improved grey Bootstrap method and its application in reliability evaluation[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2010, 40(1): 144-148.

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