考虑风光多维时空相关性的电源规划方法

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2020.424

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

提出考虑风光多维时空相关性的电源规划方法。基于Copula理论和风光出力概率分布建立考虑风光多维时空相关性的风光出力模型, 将出力场景应用于双层电源规划模型中, 提出考虑风光多维时空相关性的电源规划方法。上层是以总规划费用最小为目标函数的投资决策模型, 下层是以运行经济性和调峰特性最优为目标的短期运行优化模型。通过某地区算例验证分析了所提方法的有效性。结果表明，考虑风光时空相支性能够降低数据模拟误差，提高规划方法的经济效益，改善调峰特性。

关键词: 风电, 光伏, 时空相关性, Copula理论, 电源规划

Abstract:

A generation planning method considering multi-dimensional spatial-temporal correlation of wind and solar energy was proposed. Based on Copula theory and probability distribution of wind power and photovoltaic, a wind power and photovoltaic output model considering multi-dimensional spatial-temporal correlation of wind power and photovoltaic was established. The output scenario was applied to the bi-level generation planning model, and a generation planning method considering the multi-dimensional spatial-temporal correlation of wind power and photovoltaic was proposed. Among them, the upper level was the investment decision-making model with the minimum total planning cost as the objective function, and the lower level was the short-term operation optimization model with the optimal operation economy and peak shaving characteristics as the objective. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by a case study in a certain area, and the influence of the spatial-temporal correlation of wind power and photovoltaic on the generation planning scheme was compared and analyzed.

Key words: wind power, photovoltaic, spatial and temporal correlation, Copula theory, generation planning

中图分类号:

TM715

李文升, 王宪, 米元泽, 曹永吉, 刘晓明, 张恒旭, 刘子菡. 考虑风光多维时空相关性的电源规划方法[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2022, 52(1): 111-119.

Wensheng LI, Xian WANG, Yuanze MI, Yongji CAO, Xiaoming LIU, Hengxu ZHANG, Zihan LIU. Method for generation planning with the temporal and spatial correlation of wind and solar power[J]. Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science), 2022, 52(1): 111-119.

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电源类型	现有装机容量/MW	投建成本/ (万元·MW^-1)	固定成本/ (万元·MW^-1)
火电	51 968	430	15.03
风电	1 920	834	24.42
光伏	4 470	936	21.00
水电	200	450	14.09
储能	0	390	9.50

Copula函数	模型参数	欧式距离
Gaussian-Copula	-0.051 0	0.348 0
t-Copula	-0.063 8	0.360 4
Gumbel-Copula	1.013 1	0.724 7
Clayton-Copula	0.013 2	0.534 1
Frank-Copula	-0.369 5	0.394 1

方法	风光出力互相关系数	风电出力12 h 自相关系数	光伏出力12 h 自相关系数
原始出力	-0.385 1	0.339 0	0.320 1
考虑多维时空相关性	-0.341 3	0.313 6	0.332 6
仅考虑空间相关性	-0.325 4	0.002 4	0.125 4

方案	新建水电	新建储能	新建火电	新建风光	总装机容量
考虑多维时空相关性	6980	600	13 750	4900	84 788
仅考虑空间相关性	6420	600	14 862	3680	84 210

方案	建造费用/ 亿元	运行费用/ 亿元	其他费用/ 亿元	剩余价值/ 亿元	总费用/ 亿元
考虑多维时空相关性	46.681	1 450.614	0.862	16.492	1 480.653
仅考虑空间相关性	45.537	1 452.942	0.931	17.021	1 482.281