Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science) ›› 2019, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (6): 86-92.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2019.117

• Electrical Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of wind power convergence trend quantitation based on sub-scene reconstruction

Yuanxi YAO()   

  1. Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute Corp., Ltd., Jinan 250013, Shandong, China
  • Received:2019-03-25 Online:2019-12-20 Published:2019-12-17

RichHTML

5

PDF (PC)

581

Abstract:

The output power of wind power was fluctuating. Due to the output of unit stabilized each other, with the increase of wind power cluster size, the fluctuation of wind power gradually decreased and the wind power showed "convergence effect". Grasping the trend of the convergence effect had an important guiding significance for transmission capacity configuration of large-scale wind power network. In this paper, the scene of wind power output was defined, and the convergence characteristics of wind power in each scene were analyzed. By fitting the continuous output curve in each scene, a scene reconstruction method based on convergence characteristics analysis was proposed. The validity of the method was verified by the measured. The example showed that the sub-scene reconstruction method analyzed the trend of convergence for wind power more accurately. The number of scenarios affected the fitting accuracy of continuous output curve, comparing to the scene divided by 5, 10 and 20, scene reconstruction in 10 scenes was more accurate for the description of wind convergence trend.

Key words: sub-scene reconstruction, convergence characteristics, continuous output curve, fitting

CLC Number: 

  • TP391.4

Fig.1

Wind power output scene division flow chart"

Fig.2

The continuous output curve of wind power in different clusters"

Fig.3

Continuous output power curves of the scene 1"

Fig.4

Continuous output power curves of the scene 7"

Table 1

The number of non-zero scenes in different cluster size"

场景 单场 两场 三场 四场 五场 六场 七场 八场 九场 十场
1 29 204 39 793 43 444 43 852 44 288 45 481 46 264 46 645 48 738 47 850
2 20 267 21 302 22 140 23 172 22 776 22 701 23 151 22 932 23 981 24 657
3 12 674 12 741 12 607 13 361 13 537 13 796 13 960 14 424 14 188 14 413
4 8 446 8 256 8 555 8 543 8 643 8 739 8 675 8 865 8 043 8 138
5 5 978 5 803 5 457 5 175 5 202 5 010 4 644 4 575 4 019 4 352
6 3 636 3 331 3 216 2 731 2 769 2 606 2 392 2 265 2 028 1 986
7 2 102 1 939 1 757 1 671 1 492 1 425 1 228 1 138 550 707
8 1 320 1 325 1 214 721 641 478 266 219 19 85
9 988 536 234 107 97 51 0 0 0 0
10 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table 2

The fitting function of duration in each scene"

场景 拟合函数 决定系数
1 -7.245×1018x-5.635 0+47 230 0.902 9
2 9 870x0.127 8 0.830 6
3 -2.726×106x-1.154 0+15 200 0.928 5
4 -0.343x+8 737 0.140 5
5 8.719×105x-0.965 5+3 294 0.946 3
6 4.200×106x-1.267 0+1 479 0.989 4
7 5.312×105x-0.920 3 0.932 3
8 7.628×106x-1.392 0-374.40 0.969 4
9 0
10 0

Table 3

The maximum output of each scene under different cluster size"

场景 单场 两场 三场 四场 五场 六场 七场 八场 九场 十场
1 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
2 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20
3 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
4 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
5 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
6 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
7 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70
8 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.78 0.72 0.75
9 0.90 0.89 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.83 0 0 0 0
10 0.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table 4

The fitting function of continuous output power curves duration in scene one"

场数 拟合函数 确定系数
1 2.433×10-11x2-4.203×10-6x+0.099 55 0.999 0
2 5.325×10-11x2-4.770×10-6x+0.103 00 0.997 2
3 4.521×10-11x2-4.343×10-6x+0.101 70 0.998 4
4 4.069×10-11x2-4.159×10-6x+0.102 20 0.998 9
5 3.821×10-11x2-4.203×10-6x+0.102 30 0.998 8
6 3.686×10-11x2-3.969×10-6x+0.102 10 0.998 9
7 3.157×10-11x2-3.695×10-6x+0.100 90 0.999 1
8 3.022×10-11x2-3.637×10-6x+0.101 30 0.999 0
9 2.531×10-11x2-3.360×10-6x+0.100 80 0.999 1
10 2.631×10-11x2-3.425×10-6x+0.100 90 0.999 0

Table 5

Duration of reconstruction and actual scene"

场景 重构(时间点数) 实际(时间点数)
1 47 230 47 380
2 27 027 28 153
3 14 869 16 634
4 7 828 7 906
5 3 337 3 121
6 1 672 1 300
7 376 170
8 0 0
9 0 0
10 0 0
总计 102 339 101 869

Fig.5

Continuous output power curve of reconstruction and actual"

Table 6

The fitting function of duration in each scene"

ρspearman ρpearson D var
1 0.998 6 0.006 1 8.186×10-5

Fig.6

Continuous output curve of reconstruction and actual for five scenes"

Table 7

The indicator calculation of fitting(five scenes)"

ρspearman ρpearson D var
0.999 9 0.997 3 0.009 3 1.903×10-4

Fig.7

Continuous output curve of reconstruction and actual for twenty scenes"

Table 8

The indicator calculation of fitting(twenty scenes)"

ρspearman ρpearson D var
0.999 5 0.999 5 0.010 1 1.464×10-4
1 国家能源局.可再生能源已成为我国新增电力主力[EB/OL].http://www.nea.gov.cn/2017-10/31/c_136717000.htm.
2 姜文玲, 王勃, 汪宁渤, 等. 多时空尺度下大型风电基地出力特性研究[J]. 电网技术, 2017, 41 (2): 493- 499.
JIANG Wenling , WANG Bo , WANG Ningbo , et al. Research on power output characteristics of large-scale wind power base in multiple temporal and spatial scales[J]. Power System Technology, 2017, 41 (2): 493- 499.
3 黄林宏, 宋丽莉, 周荣卫, 等. 大型风电基地风电波动特征分析[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2017, 37 (6): 1599- 1610.
HUANG Linhong , SONG Lili , ZHOU Rongwei , et al. Characteristics analysis of wind power fluctuations for large-scale wind farms[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2017, 37 (6): 1599- 1610.
4 李剑楠, 乔颖, 鲁宗相, 等. 多时空尺度风电统计特性评价指标体系及其应用[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2013, 33 (13): 53- 61.
LI Jiannan , QIAO Ying , LU Zongxiang , et al. An evaluation index system for wind power statistical characteristics in multiple spatial and temporal scales and its application[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2013, 33 (13): 53- 61.
5 李剑楠, 乔颖, 鲁宗相, 等. 大规模风电多尺度出力波动性的统计建模研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2012, 40 (19): 7- 13.
doi: 10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2012.19.002
LI Jiannan , QIAO Ying , LU Zongxiang , et al. Research on statistical modeling of large-scale wind farms output fluctuations in different spacial and temporal scales[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2012, 40 (19): 7- 13.
doi: 10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2012.19.002
6 韩杏宁, 黎嘉明, 文劲宇, 等. 风电功率状态的时域概率特性研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2016, 44 (14): 31- 39.
doi: 10.7667/PSPC151329
HAN Xingning , LI Jiaming , WEN Jinyu , et al. Research on the time domain probabilistic characteristics of wind power state[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2016, 44 (14): 31- 39.
doi: 10.7667/PSPC151329
7 林卫星, 文劲宇, 艾小猛, 等. 风电功率波动特性的概率分布研究[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2012, 32 (1): 38- 46.
LIN Weixing , WEN Jinyu , AI Xiaomeng , et al. Probability density function of wind power variations[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2012, 32 (1): 38- 46.
8 杨茂, 杨春霖. 基于模糊粒计算的风电功率实时预测研究[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2017, 37 (5): 1- 7.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2992.2017.05.002
YANG Mao , YANG Chunlin . Research on wind power real-time forecasting based on fuzzy granular computing[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2017, 37 (5): 1- 7.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2992.2017.05.002
9 申颖, 赵千川, 李明扬. 多时空尺度下风电平滑效应的分析[J]. 电网技术, 2015, 39 (2): 400- 405.
SHEN Ying , ZHAO Qianchuan , LI Mingyang . Analysis on wind power smoothing effect in multiple temporal and spatial scales[J]. Power System Technology, 2015, 39 (2): 400- 405.
10 尹佳楠, 葛延峰, 高凯. 风电场群出力的汇聚效应分析[J]. 电测与仪表, 2015, 52 (5): 104- 108.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1390.2015.05.020
YIN Jianan , GE Yanfeng , GAO Kai . Analysis on clustering effect of wind generations[J]. Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation, 2015, 52 (5): 104- 108.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1390.2015.05.020
11 刘燕华, 田茹, 张东英, 等. 风电出力平滑效应的分析与应用[J]. 电网技术, 2013, 37 (4): 987- 991.
LIU Yanhua , TIAN Ru , ZHANG Dongying , et al. Analysis and application of wind farm output smoothing effect[J]. Power System Technology, 2013, 37 (4): 987- 991.
12 祝牧, 刘吉臻, 林忠伟. 单一风电场平滑效应研究[J]. 华北电力大学学报, 2016, 43 (3): 51- 55.
doi: 10.3969/j.ISSN.1007-2691.2016.03.08
ZHU Mu , LIU Jizhen , LIN Zongwei . Study on smoothing effect in single wind farm[J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University, 2016, 43 (3): 51- 55.
doi: 10.3969/j.ISSN.1007-2691.2016.03.08
13 穆钢, 崔杨, 严干贵. 确定风电场群功率汇聚外送输电容量的静态综合优化方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2011, 31 (1): 15- 19.
MU Gang , CUI Yang , YAN Gangui , et al. A static optimization method to determine integrated power transmission capacity of clustering wind farms[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2011, 31 (1): 15- 19.
14 黄超艺, 杨赞锋, 吴荣福, 等. 采用皮尔逊相关性的故障区段定位新方法[J]. 电气技术, 2018, 19 (6): 56- 60+68.
HUANG Chaoyi , YANG Zanfeng , WU Rongfu , et al. The new method of locating fault section with pearson correlation[J]. Electrical Engineering, 2018, 19 (6): 56- 60+68.
15 刘渝妍, 刘渝琳, 邱莎, 等. 基于排序误差长度的综合评价指标体系检验方法探讨[J]. 统计与决策, 2018, 34 (6): 5- 9.
LIU Yuyan , LIU Yulin , QIU Sha , et al. Discussion on testing method of comprehensive evaluation index system based on ranking error length[J]. Statistics & Decision, 2018, 34 (6): 5- 9.
[1] Cui JIN,Hongyuan WANG,Shoubing CHEN. Person re-identification based on random erasing pedestrian alignmentnetwork method [J]. Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science), 2018, 48(6): 67-73.
[2] ZHOU Funa, GAO Yulin, WANG Jiayu, WEN Chenglin. Early diagnosis and life prognosis for slowlyvarying fault based on deep learning [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2017, 47(5): 30-37.
[3] WANG Haipeng, ZHANG Rong, ZHANG Xiaohua, MAO Cheng, ZHOU Shuiwen. Dynamic shear creep characteristics of asphalt mortar [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2016, 46(4): 68-75.
[4] CHEN Dawei, YAN Zhao*, LIU Haoyan. Overfitting phenomenon  of  the series of single value decomposition algorithms in rating prediction [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2014, 44(3): 15-21.
[5] WANG Hai-yan, LI Yi-bin*. Gait planning and control of a biped robot walking up and down stairs [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2014, 44(1): 57-62.
[6] YE Wen, YUN Ting*, YE Ning. Local surface fitting and topology structure based on timber trunk of point cloud [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2013, 43(2): 42-47.
[7] ZHANG Yong-chao, ZHANG Yong-jian, CHEN Qing-guang, ZHANG Zhen-dong, LI Jing-lei. Study of an  automatic test system for local fans [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2011, 41(6): 75-79.
[8] WEI Yu-ke1, LI Jiang-ping2, DUAN Yang-guang1, LU Bo-sheng1. An auto-focus algorithm for the tongue image acquisition based on image processing [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2011, 41(4): 95-100.
[9] XUE Lin1, LIU Ju2, XIN Hua-mei1*, HE Jing-liang2. Optimization positioning algorithm in a non-line of sight environment  based on orthogonal polynomial fitting [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2010, 40(6): 12-16.
[10] YANG Peng-peng,HAN Xue-shan,WANG Jing,MENG Xing-xin . Unit commitment with analytic expression of probability reserve by Lagrangian relaxation method [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2007, 37(2): 58-62 .
[11] LEI Li,SONG-Tao,DONG Li-yun,LIU Chun-zhi . Field measurements and analysis of three traffic flow parameters [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2006, 36(1): 23-27 .
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] SUN Dianzhu, ZHU Changzhi, LI Yanrui. [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2009, 39(1): 84 -86 .
[2] . [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2009, 39(1): 92 -95 .
[3] XIA Bin,ZHANG Lian-jun . Energy comparison-based TOA estimation algorithm for the DS-CDMA UWB system[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2007, 37(1): 70 -73 .
[4] SHI Lai-shun,WAN Zhong-yi,WANG Lu-yan,XUE Yu-tao . Synthesis and performance evaluation of a novel Gemini cationic asphalt emulsifier[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2007, 37(3): 122 -126 .
[5] ZHAI Xin-Xian, CHEN Dong-Hai, GUO Nian-Bo, GOU Pan-Feng. The laws of strata behavior for the gob-side tailgate in the  Jining No.3 Coal Mine[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2009, 39(4): 92 -96 .
[6]

L〖AKU¨] Guo-ren,YAN Shu-ming,BAI Shu-feng,JIA Ning,MA Liang

. Impact property research on a new type of guardrail terminal for freeway[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2008, 38(4): 47 -52 .
[7] LI Li-ping,LI Shu-cai,XU Bang-shu,DING Wan-tao,WEI Li-yuan . Numerical optimization study on the construction of subsea tunnel
[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2008, 38(4): 63 -68 .
[8] ZHANG Hong-Bo, HUANG Mao-Song, SONG Xiu-Guang. A  double hardening constitutive model for fine sands based on both the dilatancy feature and strain softening[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2008, 38(6): 55 -60 .
[9] LI Chun-xiao， YUE Qin-yan， LU Lei， GAO Bao-yu， YANG Zhong-lian， SI Xiao-hui， NI Shou-qing， WANG Yuan-fang. Synthesis and application of  hydrophobically  associating  cationic  polyacrylamide    [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2008, 38(6): 99 -104 .
[10] ZHAO Ran-hang,LIU Xiao-li . Application of the variable fuzzy set theory in assessment of the modernization level in rural areas of Shandong Province[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2008, 38(2): 86 -91 .
Copyright 2018 © Editorial office of Journal of Shandong University (Engineering Science)
Supported by Beijing Magtech Co.Ltd