Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science) ›› 2018, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 101-108.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2018.289

• Electrical Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Wind and PV installed capacity optimization with hybrid uncertainty of renewable energy

Shizhan SONG1(),Chuanyong WANG1,Wenwen KANG1,Jian ZHANG1,Honghua YAN2,*(),Peng LI2   

  1. 1. State Grid Zaozhuang Power Supply Company, Zaozhuang 277800, Shandong, China
    2. Shandong Green Power Tech Co., Ltd., Jinan 250061, Shandong, China
  • Received:2018-07-12 Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-26
  • Contact: Honghua YAN E-mail:15266172927@163.com;sdgrtech@163.com
  • Supported by:
    国网山东省电力公司科技项目(2017A82)

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Abstract:

By mining the daily and monthly characteristics of renewable energy, a time series model of wind and PV was presented. Through the Monte Carlo method, several wind and PV time series were produced to depict the hybrid uncertainty of the wind and PV. Based on the hybrid uncertainty constraints of wind and PV, power balance constraint and allowed wind and PV curtailment rate, etc., the profit maximum model of renewable was proposed to optimize the installed capacities of wind power and PV, to ensure the operation economics of wind power and photovoltaic system. The simulations showed that under different allowed wind and PV curtailment rates, the optimal installation capacities of wind power and PV varied significantly. Due to the unique daily characteristics and high installation cost of PV system, the higher total revenue of PV could be achieved with lower curtailment rate and installation capacity of PV systems.

Key words: renewable energy, wind/PV time series model, wind/PV curtailment, optimizing planning

CLC Number: 

  • TM615

Fig.1

Monthly ratios of wind energy, PV and loads"

Fig.2

Wind theoretical power normalized data"

Fig.3

PV theoretical power normalized data"

Table 1

PV capacity, generation and curtailment ration under different scenarios"

限电率/% 风电装机/
MW		 光伏装机/
MW		 风电理论电量/(GWh) 光伏理论电量/
(GWh)		 风电实发电量/
(GWh)		 光伏实发电量/
(GWh)		 总收益/
万元
0 34.77 4.62 64.90 4.75 64.90 4.75 3 362
1 43.00 24.96 80.25 25.65 79.19 25.65 5 008
5 54.68 37.18 102.05 38.21 95.04 38.21 6 303
10 66.53 45.60 124.17 46.85 107.07 46.85 7 197
15 78.73 51.30 146.95 52.71 117.05 52.66 7 836
30 123.26 58.83 230.05 60.45 143.47 59.88 8 942
40 164.91 58.90 307.79 60.52 161.04 59.94 9 280
45 192.85 58.87 359.95 60.49 169.84 59.92 9 334
50 221.87 58.16 414.10 59.76 177.66 59.27 9 288
60 305.00 55.70 569.26 57.23 193.63 56.97 8 771
70 440.50 50.66 822.15 52.06 210.24 52.02 7 331

Fig.4

Installed capacities of wind and PV"

Fig.5

Wind and PV generation"

Fig.6

Wind and PV curtailment rates"

Fig.7

Wind and PV generation profits"

Table 2

Wind and PV installed capacity under different installed cost and generation profit"

序号 风电装机成本/(元/kW) 风电电价/(元/kWh) 光伏装机成本/(元/kW) 光伏电价/(元/kWh) 总收益/万元 风电装机/MW 光伏装机/MW
1 3 000 0.57 9 000 0.85 10 416 229.94 61.33
2 4 000 0.57 10 000 0.85 9 334 192.85 58.87
3 5 000 0.57 12 000 0.85 8 180 170.56 48.67
4 3 000 0.40 9 000 0.65 6 265 186.37 53.55
5 4 000 0.40 10 000 0.75 5 969 146.97 64.56
6 5 000 0.40 12 000 0.85 5 566 122.50 66.43
7 3 000 0.57 9 000 0.65 9 732 272.54 0
8 4 000 0.57 10 000 0.75 8 834 207.64 34.70
9 5 000 0.57 12 000 0.85 8 180 170.56 48.67

Table 3

Maximum integration capacity only with PV generation"

序号 光伏装机成本/(元/kW) 光伏电价/(元/kWh) 总收益/万元 光伏装机/MW
1 9 000 0.85 3 736 102.24
2 10 000 0.85 3 340 95.98
3 12 000 0.85 2 615 85.64
4 9 000 0.75 2 880 94.69
5 10 000 0.75 2 513 88.72
6 12 000 0.75 1 843 78.76
7 9 000 0.65 2 061 86.83
8 10 000 0.65 1 726 81.21
9 12 000 0.65 1 126 69.15
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