山东省旱情评价预测方法研究

山东大学学报(工学版)

山东省旱情评价预测方法研究

曹升乐，王艳玲，员如安

山东大学土建与水利学院，山东济南250061

收稿日期:2005-08-26 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2006-04-24 发布日期:2006-04-24
通讯作者: 曹升乐

Study on drought assessment and forecast method of

CAO Sheng-le,WANG Yan-ling,YUN Ru-an

School of Civil Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061，China

Received:2005-08-26 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2006-04-24 Published:2006-04-24
Contact: CAO Sheng

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在总结目前单目标旱情评价方法的基础上，提出了区域旱情综合评价预测方法，建立了模糊评价预测模型，选择了地表水、地下水、土壤水和降水作为干旱影响的主要因素.应用山东省的实际资料，对1972～2003年旱情状况进行了综合评价，评价结果与实际相符. 评价预测结果将为制定抗旱预案、减少旱灾损失提供科学依据.

关键词: 模糊理论, 综合评判, 旱情评价, 旱情预测

Abstract: Based on the singleobjective methods of drought assessment, a new comprehensive method for drought assessment and forecast was proposed. In this method, a fuzzy assessment and forecast model in constructed; and 4 factors——surface water, ground water, soil water and precipitation water were selected as main affecting factors for drought assessment and forecast. Using the data observed from 1972 to 2003 in Shandong Province, the droughts taken place during this period were assessed comprehensively, and the results, which can be used for droughtcountermeasure planning, accord with the reality of Shandong Province

Key words: comprehensive assessment, drought assessment, drought forecast , fuzzy theory

中图分类号:

P338.6

曹升乐,王艳玲,员如安 . 山东省旱情评价预测方法研究[J]. 山东大学学报(工学版), 2006, 36(2): 58-61 .

CAO Sheng-le,WANG Yan-ling,YUN Ru-an . Study on drought assessment and forecast method of[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2006, 36(2): 58-61 .

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