山东大学学报 (工学版) ›› 2022, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (6): 157-166.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2022.209
• 电气工程 • 上一篇
于群1,肖松青1*,曹娜1,何剑2,张建新3
YU Qun1, XIAO Songqing1*, CAO Na1, HE Jian2, ZHANG Jianxin3
摘要： 在已有的极值模型的基础上,利用超阈值(peaks over threshold, POT)提出基于相对值法的POT-CVaRBootstrap模型,并对中国电网停电损失风险进行评估。结合电网装机容量的发展趋势,对比利用绝对值法与相对值法统计的停电损失负荷数据,表明相对值预测更符合未来电网损失;基于相对值数据建立POT模型,提出W2& A2-Hill图的阈值选取方法。为了解决电网停电损失负荷样本数量稀少的问题,结合对有限样本重复抽样的Bootstrap法,建立CVaRBootstrap停电损失风险评估模型,利用中国电网停电损失负荷数据验证了模型的有效性,得出CVaRBootstrap模型的评估结果更优,在此基础上给出我国未来10 a的停电事故风险评估,未来很长一段时间我国的停电损失负荷将仍呈现增长趋势,且华北、华东和南方地区是停电事故发生较严重的地区。
中图分类号:
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