基于完工概率修正的关键链法项目进度优化

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2017.093

山东大学学报(工学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1): 104-111.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2017.093

基于完工概率修正的关键链法项目进度优化

刘志清¹,高浩瀚^2*,安沫霖³,张学凯¹

1. 国网山东省电力公司, 山东济南 250001;2. 山东大学电气工程学院, 山东济南 250061;3. 山东大学(威海)机电与信息工程学院, 山东威海 264209

收稿日期:2017-03-10 出版日期:2018-02-20 发布日期:2017-03-10
通讯作者: 高浩瀚(1994— ),男,安徽芜湖人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为电力系统经济运行.E-mail:15589971512@163.com E-mail:DAZHUANG79@sina.com
作者简介:刘志清(1966— ),男,山东济南人,高级工程师,主要研究方向为电网工程建设管理.E-mail:DAZHUANG79@sina.com

Project schedule optimization based on critical chain method with modified completion probability

LIU Zhiqing¹, GAO Haohan^2*, AN Molin³, ZHANG Xuekai¹

1. State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Jinan 250001, Shandong, China;
2. School of Electrical Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, Shandong, China;
3. School of Mechanical Electrical &
Information Engineering, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, Shandong, China

Received:2017-03-10 Online:2018-02-20 Published:2017-03-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 提出一种基于完工概率修正关键链法的项目进度优化方法。建立模型时,通过以关键度修正完工概率将资源约束转化为工期约束;并计及项目活动是否已施工对成本信息可获取性的影响,完善了已完工/正在施工、未施工两类项目活动不同的工期-成本表达;同时保留关键链法中的缓冲区作为可调整工期约束。优化求解中,通过维持关键链不变,实现进度计划的重新分配调整。对资源变动或进度偏离的情况,本研究方法同样可求解形成新的进度优化计划。实例仿真结果验证了本研究方法的有效性,表明该方法能够更好地处理资源约束和进度偏离情况下的项目进度优化。

关键词: 资源约束, 关键链法, 进度优化, 完工概率, 工期-成本关系

Abstract: A new method based on the critical chain method(CCM)with modified completion probability was proposed to optimize the project schedule. When building the optimization model, resource constraints were transformed into construction duration constraints by integrating criticality with completion probability, and duration-cost expression was improved according to the accomplishment state of the project activities which was divided into two kinds: accomplished/under-construction and not-yet-construction, considering the impact on cost information accessibility by the activity changes before and after the construction. Besides, CCM buffer was reserved as the adjustable duration constraints. To solve this model, critical chain was kept unchanged, so that the project activity durations could be redistributed to realize the adjustment. The method was proved also applicable in the case of resource change or schedule deviation, by which an optimal adjusted schedule was worked out. Simulations verified the effectiveness of the presented method, which showed that the method could realize project schedule optimization with resources restraints and progress deviation in a better way.

Key words: critical chain method, schedule optimization, resource constraints, duration-cost relationship, completion probability

中图分类号:

TP29

刘志清,高浩瀚,安沫霖,张学凯. 基于完工概率修正的关键链法项目进度优化[J]. 山东大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(1): 104-111.

LIU Zhiqing, GAO Haohan, AN Molin, ZHANG Xuekai. Project schedule optimization based on critical chain method with modified completion probability[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2018, 48(1): 104-111.

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基于完工概率修正的关键链法项目进度优化

Project schedule optimization based on critical chain method with modified completion probability

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