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山东大学学报 (工学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 101-108.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2018.289

• 电气工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑多重出力不确定性的风光装机容量优化

宋士瞻1(),王传勇1,康文文1,张健1,闫红华2,*(),李鹏2   

  1. 1. 国网山东省电力公司枣庄供电公司, 山东 枣庄 277800
    2. 山东国瑞电力科技有限公司, 山东 济南 250061
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-12 出版日期:2018-12-20 发布日期:2018-12-26
  • 通讯作者: 闫红华 E-mail:15266172927@163.com;sdgrtech@163.com
  • 作者简介:宋士瞻(1966—)，男，山东滕州人，高级工程师，硕士，研究方向为电力系统及其自动化. E-mail:15266172927@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国网山东省电力公司科技项目(2017A82)

Wind and PV installed capacity optimization with hybrid uncertainty of renewable energy

Shizhan SONG1(),Chuanyong WANG1,Wenwen KANG1,Jian ZHANG1,Honghua YAN2,*(),Peng LI2   

  1. 1. State Grid Zaozhuang Power Supply Company, Zaozhuang 277800, Shandong, China
    2. Shandong Green Power Tech Co., Ltd., Jinan 250061, Shandong, China
  • Received:2018-07-12 Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-26
  • Contact: Honghua YAN E-mail:15266172927@163.com;sdgrtech@163.com
  • Supported by:
    国网山东省电力公司科技项目(2017A82)

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摘要：

挖掘风电和光伏出力的日特性和月特性,构建基于日特性和月特性的风电/光伏序列模型,通过蒙特卡洛模拟方法,生成多条风电和光伏出力序列,以刻画风/光出力的多重不确定性。考虑风电和光伏多重不确定性出力约束、电力电量平衡约束、允许弃风弃光率约束等,构建风电和光伏收益最大模型,优化风电和光伏装机,保证风电和光伏运行的经济性,实现风电和光伏有序发展。仿真算例表明,在不同的允许弃风弃光率下,风电和光伏的最优装机差异较大,受光伏日特性和装机成本高的影响,只有在弃光率较小且光伏装机容量小的场景下,光伏发电才具有较好的经济效益。

关键词: 新能源, 风光序列建模, 弃风弃光, 最优规划

Abstract:

By mining the daily and monthly characteristics of renewable energy, a time series model of wind and PV was presented. Through the Monte Carlo method, several wind and PV time series were produced to depict the hybrid uncertainty of the wind and PV. Based on the hybrid uncertainty constraints of wind and PV, power balance constraint and allowed wind and PV curtailment rate, etc., the profit maximum model of renewable was proposed to optimize the installed capacities of wind power and PV, to ensure the operation economics of wind power and photovoltaic system. The simulations showed that under different allowed wind and PV curtailment rates, the optimal installation capacities of wind power and PV varied significantly. Due to the unique daily characteristics and high installation cost of PV system, the higher total revenue of PV could be achieved with lower curtailment rate and installation capacity of PV systems.

Key words: renewable energy, wind/PV time series model, wind/PV curtailment, optimizing planning

中图分类号: 

  • TM615

图1

风电、光伏和负荷全年分月电量占比"

图2

风电理论功率归一化数据"

图3

光伏理论功率归一化数据"

表1

不同场景下光伏装机、发电量以及弃电率"

限电率/% 风电装机/
MW		 光伏装机/
MW		 风电理论电量/(GWh) 光伏理论电量/
(GWh)		 风电实发电量/
(GWh)		 光伏实发电量/
(GWh)		 总收益/
万元
0 34.77 4.62 64.90 4.75 64.90 4.75 3 362
1 43.00 24.96 80.25 25.65 79.19 25.65 5 008
5 54.68 37.18 102.05 38.21 95.04 38.21 6 303
10 66.53 45.60 124.17 46.85 107.07 46.85 7 197
15 78.73 51.30 146.95 52.71 117.05 52.66 7 836
30 123.26 58.83 230.05 60.45 143.47 59.88 8 942
40 164.91 58.90 307.79 60.52 161.04 59.94 9 280
45 192.85 58.87 359.95 60.49 169.84 59.92 9 334
50 221.87 58.16 414.10 59.76 177.66 59.27 9 288
60 305.00 55.70 569.26 57.23 193.63 56.97 8 771
70 440.50 50.66 822.15 52.06 210.24 52.02 7 331

图4

风电和光伏优化装机容量"

图5

风电和光伏发电量"

图6

弃风率和弃光率"

图7

风电和光伏发电收益"

表2

不同装机成本和电价场景下风光装机容量"

序号 风电装机成本/(元/kW) 风电电价/(元/kWh) 光伏装机成本/(元/kW) 光伏电价/(元/kWh) 总收益/万元 风电装机/MW 光伏装机/MW
1 3 000 0.57 9 000 0.85 10 416 229.94 61.33
2 4 000 0.57 10 000 0.85 9 334 192.85 58.87
3 5 000 0.57 12 000 0.85 8 180 170.56 48.67
4 3 000 0.40 9 000 0.65 6 265 186.37 53.55
5 4 000 0.40 10 000 0.75 5 969 146.97 64.56
6 5 000 0.40 12 000 0.85 5 566 122.50 66.43
7 3 000 0.57 9 000 0.65 9 732 272.54 0
8 4 000 0.57 10 000 0.75 8 834 207.64 34.70
9 5 000 0.57 12 000 0.85 8 180 170.56 48.67

表3

仅装光伏场景下电网最大接纳能力"

序号 光伏装机成本/(元/kW) 光伏电价/(元/kWh) 总收益/万元 光伏装机/MW
1 9 000 0.85 3 736 102.24
2 10 000 0.85 3 340 95.98
3 12 000 0.85 2 615 85.64
4 9 000 0.75 2 880 94.69
5 10 000 0.75 2 513 88.72
6 12 000 0.75 1 843 78.76
7 9 000 0.65 2 061 86.83
8 10 000 0.65 1 726 81.21
9 12 000 0.65 1 126 69.15
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