山东大学学报(工学版)
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李传奇，王薇
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LI Chuan-qi,WANG Wei
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摘要： 蓄滞洪区的发展受多种驱动因素的影响，其发展充满了不确定性.本文以海河流域某蓄滞洪区为例，利用情景分析方法，针对研究区域的现状特征和未来发展趋势，构建了蓄滞洪区的不同发展情景.通过比较分析，评价不同情景方案对区域防洪减灾、社会经济发展和生态环境保护等的作用，为管理决策者在制定政策时提供参考.
关键词: 蓄滞洪区, 情景分析, 洪水资源
Abstract: The paper analysis the use of scenario analysis in detention basin development, using a case study from Haihe Basin. The development process of alternative scenarios is proposed. The analysis focuses on possible future developments in a region that is undergoing major economic and social changes, and where conditions can be best characterized as uncertain. The qualitative scenarios presented in the paper attempt to provide indications of how future development.
Key words: scenario analysis, flood resources , detention basin
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李传奇,王薇 . 情景基础的蓄滞洪区发展研究[J]. 山东大学学报(工学版), 2006, 36(1): 60-64 .
LI Chuan-qi,WANG Wei . A scenario-based framework for detention basin development[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2006, 36(1): 60-64 .
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链接本文: http://gxbwk.njournal.sdu.edu.cn/CN/
http://gxbwk.njournal.sdu.edu.cn/CN/Y2006/V36/I1/60
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