Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science) ›› 2021, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (5): 114-121.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2020.104

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Photovoltaic power prediction method based on NWP irradiance inclination conversion

Wenling JIANG(),Yanqing ZHAO,Bo WANG,Shuanglei FENG,Yan PEI,Fei ZHANG   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy & Storage System (China Electric Power Research Institute), Beijing 100192, China
  • Received:2020-04-13 Online:2021-10-20 Published:2021-09-29

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Abstract:

Short-term photovoltaic (PV) power predictions statistical methods generally used the horizontal irradiance in numerical weather prediction (NWP) directly, but not the inclined irradiance received by tilt PV panels, which led to the calculation results not accurate enough. This paper proposed a new method to convert horizontal irradiance to inclined one. The method distinguished scattering into molecular scattering and Mie scattering with different properties, and then converted them separately. Using the new method, the paper converted NWP horizontal irradiance to inclined one. Based on inclined one, PV power model and prediction were made. The result of an example showed that the new method, whose root mean square error was 10.25% and correlation coefficient was 0.914 0, was more accurate than the traditional method, which used NWP horizontal irradiance directly.

Key words: irradiance inclination conversion, scattered radiation, short-term PV power prediction, numerical weather prediction (NWP)

CLC Number: 

  • TM615

Fig.1

NWP irradiances before and after inclination conversion and real PV output for about 2 a"

Fig.2

Correlations of NWP irradiances before and after inclination conversion with real PV power output"

Table 1

Error statistics of PV output calculated by different irradiance inclination conversion methods"

计算方法 m/% c
Liu-Jordan 6.40 0.975 1
Hay-Davies 6.09 0.975 5
Reindl 8.74 0.950 9
King 6.43 0.975 3
晴空方法 5.92 0.976 6

Fig.3

v"

Table 2

Error statistics of prediction results of PV output"

方法 m/% c
采用NWP水平辐照度 10.80 0.904 8
采用NWP斜面辐照度 10.25 0.914 0
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