强对流下输电塔-线体系倒塌易损性与风险分析

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2026.090

Abstract

Abstract: To accurately evaluate the true failure risk of transmission lines under complex meteorological conditions, a three-dimensional(3D)joint probability distribution model of wind speed, rainfall intensity, and wind direction was constructed based on Copula theory, and a structural fragility and full-probability failure assessment method under severe convective weather was proposed. Initially, the optimal marginal distributions for each variable were selected, and Archimedean Copula functions were introduced. Using long-term meteorological data(1971~2020)from the southern Hebei region, the hazard reduction effect under the joint return period of wind, rain, and wind direction was quantified. Subsequently, a refined finite element model of the transmission tower-line system was established. Using the inter-panel drift ratio as the evaluation criterion, the global collapse mechanism of the transmission tower induced by the buckling of local diagonal members under various wind attack angles was revealed, and the corresponding wind-induced fragility curves were derived. Finally, by coupling the 3D meteorological joint probability model with the structural fragility model via weighted integration over all wind directions, the total annual failure probability of the structure was obtained.

Key words: transmission tower-line system, Copula model, wind speed-rainfall-wind direction joint distribution, fragility analysis, probabilistic risk analysis

CLC Number:

TM753

Wang Lihuan, Gao Fan, Chai Linjie, Zhang Teng, Yu Feiyang, Zhang Xin, Tian Li. Collapse fragility and risk analysis of transmission tower-line systems under severe convective weather[J].Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science), 2026, 56(4): 163-175.

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