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山东大学学报 (工学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (4): 163-175.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2026.090

• 土木工程 • 上一篇    

强对流下输电塔-线体系倒塌易损性与风险分析

王丽欢1,2,郜帆1,2,柴林杰1,2,张腾1,2,宇飞洋3,张欣3,田利3*   

  1. 1. 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院, 河北 石家庄 050081;2. 河北汇智电力工程设计有限公司, 河北 石家庄 050081;3. 山东大学土建与水利学院, 山东 济南 250061
  • 发布日期:2026-08-12
  • 作者简介:王丽欢(1986— ),女,山东菏泽人,高级工程师,硕士,主要研究方向为输电线路工程技术研发. E-mail:461152972@qq.com. *通信作者简介:田利(1982— ),男,山东枣庄人,教授,博士生导师,博士,主要研究方向为结构防灾减灾. E-mail:tianli@sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(52178489);山东省杰出青年科学基金资助项目(ZR2022JQ27);河北汇智电力工程有限公司技术服务资助项目(SGHEHZ00SJJS2500068)

Collapse fragility and risk analysis of transmission tower-line systems under severe convective weather

Wang Lihuan1,2, Gao Fan1,2, Chai Linjie1,2, Zhang Teng1,2, Yu Feiyang3, Zhang Xin3, Tian Li3*   

  1. Wang Lihuan1, 2, Gao Fan1, 2, Chai Linjie1, 2, Zhang Teng1, 2, Yu Feiyang3, Zhang Xin3, Tian Li3*(1. State Grid Hebei Economic Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 050081, Hebei, China;
    2. Hebei Huizhi Electric Power Engineering Design Co., LTD., Shijiazhuang 050081, Hebei, China;
    3. School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, Shandong, China
  • Published:2026-08-12

摘要： 为准确评估复杂气象下输电线路的真实失效风险,基于Copula理论构建风速-雨强-风向三维联合概率分布模型,提出强化对流天气下结构易损性与全概率失效评估方法。优选各变量边缘分布并引入阿基米德Copula函数,利用冀南地区1971~2020年长序列气象数据,量化风-雨-风向联合重现期下的次生灾害折减效应;建立输电塔-线体系精细化模型,以节间位移角为判断标准,揭示不同风攻角下输电塔由局部斜材失稳诱发的整体倒塌机理,并得出风致易损性曲线;通过全风向加权积分耦合气象三维联合概率模型与易损性模型,得到结构的年总失效概率。

关键词: 输电塔-线体系, Copula模型, 风速-雨量-风向联合分布, 易损性分析, 风险分析

Abstract: To accurately evaluate the true failure risk of transmission lines under complex meteorological conditions, a three-dimensional(3D)joint probability distribution model of wind speed, rainfall intensity, and wind direction was constructed based on Copula theory, and a structural fragility and full-probability failure assessment method under severe convective weather was proposed. Initially, the optimal marginal distributions for each variable were selected, and Archimedean Copula functions were introduced. Using long-term meteorological data(1971~2020)from the southern Hebei region, the hazard reduction effect under the joint return period of wind, rain, and wind direction was quantified. Subsequently, a refined finite element model of the transmission tower-line system was established. Using the inter-panel drift ratio as the evaluation criterion, the global collapse mechanism of the transmission tower induced by the buckling of local diagonal members under various wind attack angles was revealed, and the corresponding wind-induced fragility curves were derived. Finally, by coupling the 3D meteorological joint probability model with the structural fragility model via weighted integration over all wind directions, the total annual failure probability of the structure was obtained.

Key words: transmission tower-line system, Copula model, wind speed-rainfall-wind direction joint distribution, fragility analysis, probabilistic risk analysis

中图分类号: 

  • TM753
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[1] 张亮,牛凯,罗贤超,张思遥,裴浩威,唐亚可,田利. 风冰荷载作用下输电塔-线体系参数敏感性分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2024, 54(3): 132-140.
[2] 徐震,张涛,葛向东,高峰,张来仪,张欣,田利. 风荷载作用下输电塔-线体系不确定性分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2021, 51(4): 99-105.
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