南水北调东线山东段13市居民层次化用水研究

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2024.239

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对南水北调东线山东段13市水资源短缺、水价未能有效指导居民层次化节水的问题,基于这13市居民生活用水的调查数据,采用概率密度区间统计法,建立居民生活分层用水评价模型测算刚性、弹性用水量,揭示水价变动对居民刚性、弹性用水量的影响。结果表明:山东省弹性用水量占比为29.92%,在满足居民生活刚性用水前提下,节水重点可放在压缩弹性用水上;山东省经济发达城市弹性用水占比高于经济落后城市,说明经济发展程度越高的城市,弹性用水占比越高;水价变化对弹性用水量影响较为显著,表明水价在一定程度上能起到调控居民生活层次化用水量的作用。研究成果可为居民分层用水预测及水价改革政策实施提供数据支持。

关键词: 居民生活用水, 刚性、弹性用水, 层次评价, 水价, 山东省

Abstract: In response to the water shortage in 13 cities along the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Shandong Province and the issue that water prices have failed to effectively guide hierarchical water conservation among residents, based on the survey data of domestic water consumption of residents in these 13 cities, the probability density interval statistical method was adopted to establish a hierarchical domestic water consumption evaluation model to calculate the rigid and elastic water consumption, and to reveal the influence mechanism of water price changes on the rigid and elastic water consumption of residents. The results showed that the proportion of elastic water consumption in Shandong Province was 29.92%. Under the premise of meeting the rigid water consumption of residents, the focus of water conservation can be placed on reducing the elastic water consumption. The proportion of elastic water consumption in economically developed cities in Shandong Province was higher than that in economically backward cities, indicating that the higher the degree of economic development of a city, the higher the proportion of elastic water consumption. Changes in water prices had a significant impact on elastic water consumption, suggesting that water prices could play a certain role in regulating the hierarchical water consumption of residents to a certain extent. The research results could provide data support for the prediction of hierarchical water consumption of residents and the implementation of water price reform policies.

Key words: domestic water for residents, rigid and flexible water, hierarchical evaluation, water price, Shandong Province

中图分类号:

TV213.4

张祎珂,代晨洋,王好芳,王明栋,李典基. 南水北调东线山东段13市居民层次化用水研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2026, 56(1): 189-196.

ZHANG Yike, DAI Chenyang, WANG Haofang, WANG Mingdong, LI Dianji. Research on hierarchical water use of residents in 13 cities of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science), 2026, 56(1): 189-196.

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