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山东大学学报 (工学版) ›› 2025, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (5): 70-77.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2024.203

• 电气工程——智慧能源专题 • 上一篇    

考虑日食过境影响的光伏出力与爬坡速率预测方法

陈浩然1,祁鑫2,田志浩2,李桐2,刘刚2,李常刚1*   

  1. 1.电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室(山东大学), 山东 济南 250061;2.国网宁夏电力有限公司, 宁夏 银川 750001
  • 发布日期:2025-10-17
  • 作者简介:陈浩然(2000— ),男,山东临沂人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为极端天气下的电力系统安全风险评估. E-mail: chenhaoran2022@mail.sdu.edu.cn. *通信作者简介:李常刚(1984— ),男,山东日照人,教授,博士生导师,博士,主要研究方向为电力系统运行与控制. E-mail: lichgang@sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家电网公司科技资助项目(5108-202218280A-2-266-XG)

Method for predicting photovoltaic generation and ramp rate considering the impact of solar eclipse transit

CHEN Haoran1, QI Xin2, TIAN Zhihao2, LI Tong2, LIU Gang2, LI Changgang1*   

  1. CHEN Haoran1, QI Xin2, TIAN Zhihao2, LI Tong2, LIU Gang2, LI Changgang1*(1. Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control of Ministry of Education(Shandong University), Jinan 250061, Shandong, China;
    2. State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd., Yinchuan 750001, Ningxia, China
  • Published:2025-10-17

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摘要： 准确预测日食过境期间光伏的出力与爬坡速率对于缓解系统调峰压力、维持系统的电力电量平衡具有重要意义。提出一种日内太阳辐射强度模型构建方法,用于表征某地太阳辐射强度日内特性;分别构建日全食、日环食、日偏食过境情况下的太阳遮挡率模型,修正日内太阳辐射强度模型;提出一种考虑温度对于光伏效率影响的光伏出力模型,给出光伏机组的爬坡速率与计算模型。算例部分以2020年6月21日发生于我国的日环食事件为例,对某省100 kW光伏场站出力情况进行反演分析,验证所提方法的有效性。探究不同遮挡程度的日食对于光伏爬坡速率的影响,指出遮挡程度越大的日食所对应的光伏爬坡速率越高,日全食下甚至可达正常情况的4倍以上,需要调度人员高度重视。

关键词: 日食, 太阳辐射强度, 遮挡率, 光伏出力, 光伏爬坡速率

Abstract: Accurately predicting the output and ramp rate of photovoltaic(PV)systems during an eclipse is of significant importance for alleviating peak-shaving pressure and maintaining the balance of power consumption. A method for constructing an intra-day solar radiation intensity model was proposed, which characterized the daily characteristics of solar radiation intensity at a certain location. Subsequently, models for the shading percentage of the sun during total, annular, and partial eclipses were respectively established to update the intra-day solar radiation intensity model. Next, the PV generation model considering the impact of temperature on efficiency was introduced, along with the ramp rate and calculation models for PV units.In the case study section, the annular eclipse event that occurred on June 21, 2020, in China was used as an example to retrospectively analyze the output of a 100 kW PV station, thereby validating the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, the study explored the impact of different percentages of eclipse obscuration on the PV ramp rate, indicating that eclipses with greater obscuration corresponded to higher PV ramp rates. The PV ramp rate under a total solar eclipse was found to even reach more than 4 times the normal situation, and dispatch personnel were required to attach great importance to it.

Key words: solar eclipse, solar radiation intensity, shading percentage, PV generation, PV ramp rate

中图分类号: 

  • TM615
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