关键词: 共轭分布, 洪水流量, 动态估值

Abstract: The ratio of the real flood inflow with its primitive predictive inflow is regarded as random variate which conforms to normal probability distribution. Its mean and variance are also treated as random variables. Following Bayesian conjugate distribution method, the prior and posterior probability distributions functions of the mean and variance are inferred. The actual flux's probability distribution function can be deduced in terms of the posterior distribution functions. The ratio of the actual inflow's observation value with the primitive predictive value is regarded as a sample. In terms of the ratio's value, the posterior distributions of the mean and variance are dynamically regulated. Furthermore the actual inflow's probability distribution and quantile can be realtimely corrected and estimated for times after current time.

Key words: flood flux, dynamical estimation , conjugate distribution