JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE) ›› 2017, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (6): 83-88.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2016.480

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Prediction model of concentrating solar power technology maturity

XIE Guohui, FAN Hao   

  1. State Grid Energy Research Inistitute, Bejing 102209, China
  • Received:2016-12-21 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2016-12-21

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Abstract: Judging concentrating solar power(CSP)technology trend could provide critical reference for global energy interconnection(GEI)planning and construction. The technology maturity prediction model of CSP based on S-shaped growth curve was established, and the CSP patent information was collected and the model parameters regression analysis was made in order to predict the technical maturity of CSP in the future. The impact on CSP technology trend from policy driven and capital investment was studied. The results showed that the current maturity of CSP was much lower, which was still in the early technology development stages. CSP technology maturity would reach a high degree by 2032, entering extensive commercial application stage. Large-scale CSP stations which were built in North Africa, South East and West coast of the Latin America, western China and other regions, would play an important role in supporting the construction of GEI.

Key words: GEI, technology maturity, prediction model, CSP

CLC Number: 

  • TM315
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