基于NWP辐照度斜面转换的光伏功率预测方法

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1672-3961.0.2020.104

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

短期光伏功率预测统计方法一般采用数值天气预报(numerical weather prediction, NWP)的水平辐照度, 而不是倾斜安装的光伏板上接收到的斜面辐照度, 导致预测精度不足。针对这一问题提出新的辐照度斜面转换方法, 先将散射辐射分为属性不同的分子散射、米散射, 再对两者分别进行斜面转换; 采用该方法将NWP水平辐照度转换为NWP斜面辐照度, 再基于NWP斜面辐照度进行光伏功率建模与预测。算例结果显示, 本方法的预测精度(均方根误差为10.25%、相关性系数为0.914 0)高于直接采用NWP水平辐照度的传统方法。

关键词: 辐照度斜面转换, 散射辐射, 短期光伏功率预测, 数值天气预报

Abstract:

Short-term photovoltaic (PV) power predictions statistical methods generally used the horizontal irradiance in numerical weather prediction (NWP) directly, but not the inclined irradiance received by tilt PV panels, which led to the calculation results not accurate enough. This paper proposed a new method to convert horizontal irradiance to inclined one. The method distinguished scattering into molecular scattering and Mie scattering with different properties, and then converted them separately. Using the new method, the paper converted NWP horizontal irradiance to inclined one. Based on inclined one, PV power model and prediction were made. The result of an example showed that the new method, whose root mean square error was 10.25% and correlation coefficient was 0.914 0, was more accurate than the traditional method, which used NWP horizontal irradiance directly.

Key words: irradiance inclination conversion, scattered radiation, short-term PV power prediction, numerical weather prediction (NWP)

中图分类号:

TM615

姜文玲,赵艳青,王勃,冯双磊,裴岩,张菲. 基于NWP辐照度斜面转换的光伏功率预测方法[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2021, 51(5): 114-121.

Wenling JIANG,Yanqing ZHAO,Bo WANG,Shuanglei FENG,Yan PEI,Fei ZHANG. Photovoltaic power prediction method based on NWP irradiance inclination conversion[J]. Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science), 2021, 51(5): 114-121.

图/表 5

图1

图2

表1

图3

表2

参考文献 16

1	李忠东. 全球光伏市场稳步增长[J]. 太阳能, 2019, 300 (4): 76- 78.
2	卢静, 翟海青, 刘纯, 等. 光伏发电功率预测统计方法研究[J]. 华东电力, 2010, 38 (4): 563- 567.
	LU Jing , ZHAI Haiqing , LIU Chun , et al. Study on statistical method for predicting photovoltaic generation power[J]. East China Electric Power, 2010, 38 (4): 563- 567.
3	卢静, 翟海清, 冯双磊, 等. 光伏发电功率预测方法的探索[J]. 华东电力, 2013, 41 (2): 380- 384.
	LU Jing , ZHAI Haiqing , FENG Shuanglei , et al. Physical method for photovoltaic power prediction[J]. East China Electric Power, 2013, 41 (2): 380- 384.
4	龚莺飞, 鲁宗相, 乔颖, 等. 光伏功率预测技术[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2016, 40 (4): 140- 151.
	GONG Yingfei , LU Zongxiang , QIAO Ying , et al. An overview of photovoltaic energy system output forecasting technology[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2016, 40 (4): 140- 151.
5	魏嫽嫽, 崔承刚, 杨宁, 等. 光伏发电功率预测斜面辐射组合模型的评估研究[J]. 可再生能源, 2018, 36 (6): 842- 849. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-5292.2018.06.008
	WEI Liaoliao , CUI Chenggang , YANG Ning , et al. Evaluation study on combination models of solar irradiance on inclined surfaces in the PV power forecasting[J]. Renewable Energy Resources, 2018, 36 (6): 842- 849. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-5292.2018.06.008
6	丁毛毛, 杨仁刚. 基于天气预报的光伏输出功率短期预测[J]. 可再生能源, 2014, 32 (4): 385- 391.
	DING Maomao , YANG Rengang . Research on short-term prediction of PV output power based on weather forecast[J]. Renewable Energy Resources, 2014, 32 (4): 385- 391.
7	ERBS D G , KLEIN S A , DUFFIE J A . Estimation of the diffuse radiation fraction for hourly, daily and monthly-average global radiation[J]. Solar Energy, 1982, 28 (4): 293- 302. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(82)90302-4
8	PEREZ R R , INEICHEN P , MAXWELL E L , et al. Dynamic global-to-direct irradiance conversion models[J]. Ashrae Transactions, 1992, 98 (1): 354- 369.
9	REINDL D T , BECKMAN W A , DUFFIE J A . Diffuse fraction correlations[J]. Solar Energy, 1990, 45 (1): 1- 7. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(90)90060-P
10	LIU B Y H , JORDAN R C . The interrelationship and characteristic distribution of direct, diffuse and total solar radiation[J]. Solar Energy, 1960, 4 (3): 1- 19. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(60)90062-1
11	HAY J E . Calculation of monthly mean solar radiation for horizontal and inclined surfaces[J]. Solar Energy, 1979, 23 (4): 301- 307. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(79)90123-3
12	REINDL D T , BECKMAN W A , DUFFIE J A . Evaluation of hourly tilted surface radiation models[J]. Solar Energy, 1990, 45 (1): 9- 17. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(90)90061-G
13	盛裴轩, 毛节泰, 李建国, 等. 大气物理学[M]. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 2003: 84- 101.
14	何洪林, 于贵瑞, 牛栋. 复杂地形条件下的太阳资源辐射计算方法研究[J]. 资源科学, 2003, 25 (1): 78- 85. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1007-7588.2003.01.013
	HE Honglin , YU Guirui , NIU Dong . Method of global solar radiation calculation on complex territories[J]. Resources Science, 2003, 25 (1): 78- 85. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1007-7588.2003.01.013
15	SHAO Yanbo , ZHANG Jun , GUO Peng , et al. Impact of solar radiation variation on the optimal titled angle for fixed grid-connected PV array case—study in Beijing[J]. Global Energy Interconnection, 2018, 1 (4): 460- 466.
16	李净, 罗晶. 晴空下山区太阳辐射模拟[J]. 干旱区地理, 2015, 38 (1): 120- 127.
	LI Jing , LUO Jing . Estimation of solar radiation over rugged terrains based on clear sky condition[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015, 38 (1): 120- 127.

多维度评价

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

计算方法	m/%	c
Liu-Jordan	6.40	0.975 1
Hay-Davies	6.09	0.975 5
Reindl	8.74	0.950 9
King	6.43	0.975 3
晴空方法	5.92	0.976 6

[1]	宋士瞻,王传勇,康文文,张健,闫红华,李鹏. 考虑多重出力不确定性的风光装机容量优化[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2018, 48(6): 101-108.
[2]	宋士瞻,王传勇,康文文,张健,闫红华,李鹏. 基于时序生产模拟的配电网光伏装机容量规划[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2018, 48(5): 131-136.
[3]	丛旖旎,曹增功,牟宏,王春义,刘玉田. 百万千瓦级滩涂光伏电站接入电网分析[J]. 山东大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(6): 77-82.
[4]	尹晓敏,孟祥剑,侯昆明,陈亚潇,高峰. 一种计及空间相关性的光伏电站历史出力数据的修正方法[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2021, 51(4): 118-123.
[5]	李志,余绍峰,苏毅方,王蔚,蒋宏图,张伟. 基于RTDS的配电网一二次融合仿真技术[J]. 山东大学学报 (工学版), 2020, 50(6): 112-117.